This project investigates the impact of geopolitics on global supply chain security, particularly the risks associated with geopolitical conflicts and secondary sanctions targeting specific countries. The primary objective is to understand how the resultant risks of disruption in local value chains propagate in the global value chain network and by extension, impact its stability.

As part of its analytical framework, this study employs theoretical modeling to delineate pathways and mechanisms through which micro-level shocks can be amplified and propagated in the network. Drawing on the OECD-ICIO (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Inter-Country Input-Output) data, it examines the resilience and security of supply chains of 36 industries across 64 countries or regions against shocks such as secondary sanctions by the United States and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Additionally, the study also assesses the extent to which these shocks can alter the structure of the global supply chain network.

The Global Supply Chain Resilience Index will be made publicly available as a potential reference for countries and corporations to use in their actual decision-making processes.